Gold equals money ? Mari tanam emas!

Artikel dan perbincangan yang panjang dgn rakan-rakan.
Saya tambah sikit tentang pelaburan emas yg saya baru belajar akhir-akhir ini.
Rakan saya ada mencadangkan pelaburan Emas KFH (Kuwait Fin House)yang dijangka memberi pulangan 12%setahun..
Spt juga hartanah, harga emas sentiasa naik.. biasanya orang beli emas utk keuntungan jangka panjang kerana harga sentiasa naik.
Emas juga boleh digadaikan jika perlu wang segera (spt di Ar Rahnu atau Bank Rakyat)..
Jangan lupa..emas perak perlu dizakat...tak pe..zakat boleh beri pd "program zakat sekolah atau institusi Islam".

Ada beberapa perkara atau pilihan pelaburan emas ini.
1)Public gold... Modal sekitar RM30-40K... komisyen sekitar 1% per transaction (selain keuntungan jika harga naik)... boleh cek dgn ejen ...saya belum dapat kumpul RM30-40K
Maybank pun ada emas Kijang..Public gold dan Kijang...Malaysian brand..nak jual di luar negeri, susah sikit kot...

2)Emas Hiasan dan gadaian.. Ini biasa orang perempuan pakai, tapi tak sesuai utk pelaburan kerana ada tambahan harga 'workmanship".. dan "spread" (Harga beli-harga jual) yang sangat jauh berbeza... TAPI kalau pandai "BELI SURAT PAJAK" anda mungkin boleh dapat emas dengan harga sangat murah!...But still... jika simpan utk masa panjang, masih menguntungkan (dgn andaian harga emas sentiasa naik)

3)Emas Gold bar/coin
a.Dinar Mas Kelantan .. mula popular di negara Islam dan di Malaysia, khususnya Kelantan.. tapi bekalan dan harga "tidak menarik"... kecuali kita boleh benar-benar berjual beli menggunakan dinar (emas) dan dirham(perak).. tapi tetap makin populer, terkini; perak juga turut serta...boleh google "dinar Emas kelantan".
dinar (emas) sekitr RM600 dan 1 dirham (perak)sekitar RM20 SHJA. Malah sudah ada beberapa kedai yang boleh berjual beli atau bayar gaji (atau bayar hantaran) guna dinar dan dirham.
b.UOB gold. Ini adalah bar dan syiling emas yang sangat stabil dan laku di mana-mana di dunia dan mematuhi pasaran dan std antarabangsa: Australian Nugget, Canadian mapple, Singapore Lion dll...
rujuk harga terkini di sini http://www1.uob.com.my/jsp/finance/fin_gold.jsp?func=gold
Anda boleh beli emas bar atau syiling dengan harga semasa..


Bagi saya... harga terbaik adalah beli Emas UOBbar atau syling dgn denominasi 1oz (31.1gram) sama ada Pamp, Nugget atau Lion... eg dgn harga RM 4345/oz atau 31.1gram atau 139.71/gram... jika anda beli sikit 1 gram, 5 gram... hatta 100 gram harganya lebih tinggi....
Saya lebih minat dgn emas fizikal UOB ini ... harga/gram paling kompetetif dan senang jual semula di seluruh dunia (mungkin boleh beli guna US dollar dan jual harga RM!)..cuma, pastikan ada peti besi atau sewa safe deposit box utk keselamatan!.. Satu lagi masalah..stok susah dapat..biasanya kena pegi UOB main Branch di KL...

Emas SELAIN UOB/std gold... Sesuai jika anda mau jadi ejen emas , atau BUKA KEDAI EMAS!
(nota...anda juga boleh buat khidmat menyadur semula-gold plating, atau membaiki emas...modal rendah..saya ada kawan yang buat bisnes ini)

4)Emas Fizikal vs Akaun Emas... Baca perbincangan di Zaharuddin.net.... JANGAN beli emas tanpa dapat EMAS FIZIKAL... eg Maybank ada akaun Emas tapi tiada emas fizikal (cuma tertulis dalam akaun...tapi mana emasnya?)
..refer kepada Posting http://chemistryagro.blogspot.com/2011/02/12-economic-collapse-scenarios-that-we.html
"So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more “paper gold” and “paper silver” has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? "


5) AWAS
a.Skim pelaburan Emas Amazing Wealth dll. Mereka membeli emas dari Dinarius Dirham http://www.dinariusdirham.com/v1/tnc dan menjual semula kepada kita, dengan jaminan keuntungan 2% sebulan (24% setahun!).... Nampak cantik.. tapi awas, mereka menggunakan emas PAMP 100gram (harga sekarang RM13365) tetapi menjual kepada kita dgn harga emas barang kemas RM 16 660 http://www.fgjam.org.my/ ... ini skim cepat kaya..

b)Emas percuma/barangan electronic. Banyak iklan E-book..panduan mendapatkan emas percuma dari barangan elektronik... satu lagi pembaziran... sy keja kilang elektronik,... "gold wire" dalam litar elektronik dah banyak tukar kpd "Copper wire"... lagipun bukan senang nak pecahkan komponen plastik utk dapatkan sedikit emas (jika ada) dalam komponen telefon, TV dll...

B)KOPERASI..perbincangan tambahan... satu potensi yg belum dimanfaatkan sebaiknya. Banyak koperasi di Malysia buat duit dgn Pinjaman koperasi kepada ahli (atau rugi kerana ahli tak bayar balik pinjaman!)...
Pengalaman dgn koperasi ditempat kerja...Kami boleh pinjam (tanpa penjamin) SETAKAT jumlah yg ada dalam simpanan...eg..jika ahli ada RM 5000, dia boleh pinjam RM5000, simpanan ahli adalah jaminan kpd pinjaman tersebut...
Jadi, bolehlah pinjam dari koperasi dgn kadar 6-7% dan beli emas dgn keuntungan 12% setahun! ... nanti dah banyak emas, boleh beli tanah atau bangunan pula!...

wallahu'alam
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REFFERENCE....................
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Is Paul Donovan a Jew?

Please remember, George Soros (the great American Jew) use to say that gold is the ultimate bubble in early 2010. Two weeks after that he increased his holding in SPDR Gold Trust from 2.5 million shares to 6.2 million!!


If I'm not mistaken, I have read somewhere, his gold holding is around 3,800 tons. That's worth around RM500 billion. Just for comparison, total export of oil by Petronas is only RM45-50 billion per year. Anytime he can buy Malaysia!!



Itu baru satu Yahudi. Yang lain tu?? Syarikat Yahudi lain di Wall Street?? Sebab itulah harga emas naik mendadak.



Harga emas memang cukup stabil dan atas sebab inilah ia sesuai sebagai matawang. Harganya sekitar US300-400/oz semenjak 1980 hingga 2005 (25 tahun). Kemudian naik secara perlahan US600-700/oz pada 2007. Pada 2008 harga dah mencecah US800/oz dan sekarang harganya US1,400/oz. Dalam masa 6 tahun dah naik 3-4x ganda dan berkemungkinan besar akan naik lagi. Mostly semua ni kerja Yahudi sebab mereka sedang simpan stok emas.



Bila matawang US dan negara lain menjunam jatuh akibat tidak ada nilai, Yahudi akan berkuasa penuh dalam matawang dunia sebab kebanyakkan emas mereka yang pegang. Pada masa itu, hampir seluruh dunia akan tunduk kepada kehendak Israel.... and this might happen sooner than you think.



Untuk makluman, USD tu tidak disandarkan dengan emas. Pada Oktober 2010, Ben Bernake (Chairman, US Federal Reserve) berkata "The US Government has a great technology, its called 'the printing press'. We can print money as much as we want to". Depa boleh cetak duit sebanyak mana yang mereka mahu dan dunia terpaksa menerima. Tetapi berapa lama???



Masalahnya kita ni tak ada cukup duit nak beli emas...heh...heh.... Satu gram pun tak dak....



TQ



Just for your info tentang ekonomi US, sila click www.usdebtclock.org atau buat search US Debt. Clock ini dalam real time. Sekarang dah mencecah USD14 trillion. Nak tahu banyak mana nilai ini? Kalau kita belanja sebanyak US1 setiap saat (bersamaan RM260,000 sehari), duit ini akan habis selepas 444,000 tahun. Masa sejak Nabi Adam pun tak sampai angka ini. Ikut penganalisis Kristian, sekitar 6,000 tahun hingga sekarang. Oleh sebab itu, banyak pihak yang berpendapat US tidak mungkin dapat membayar semula hutangnya ini.


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From: amali
To: xxxxxx@googlegroups.com
Sent: Saturday, January 15, 2011 21:15:38
Subject: [xxxxx] Gold equals money -
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: xxx
Date: Sat, Jan 15, 2011 at 8:43 PM
Subject: on shortage of gold to qualify as currency

Aswt,


I found this article by Prof Kameel which is of interest to the subject.

Wassalam,
Zxxx '72 S

This article appeared in The Edge Malaysia, Issue 774, Sep 28-Oct 4, 2009.



Gold equals money



In this column I would like to respond to Paul Donovan’s article “Gold has no serious role as a currency” (Issue 769, Aug 24). Donovan, who is deputy head of global economics at UBS Investment Bank, contends that it is unlikely for gold to assume some kind of central role in the modern foreign exchange system simply because there isn’t enough of it.

Discrediting gold on the pretext of its limited supply is common. This misunderstanding can perhaps be cleared up using the equation of exchange MV = PY. In the modern fiat-money-based economic system, for every flow of goods and services, there is the opposite flow of money. This is fundamentally what the equation of exchange captures. The real goods and services are depicted by Y, commonly measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) at a constant price. In the case of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia measures Y using GDP at year 2000 prices. Any change in Y, therefore, depicts a change in real goods and services. P is the general price level. Hence, Y is price times quantity, which is basically the nominal GDP.

M is the total money supply in the economy. There are many definitions of money but what is important here is money that is normally used for transactions, that is, for the purchase of goods and services. Hence, the appropriate definition here is that M2 consists of currencies and coins in circulation, demand deposits and less liquid money like time deposits.

The equation of exchange, therefore, simply says “price times quantity is what is paid in monetary terms”. Nonetheless, in macroeconomics we have one more variable, that is the velocity of money circulation, depicted by V. Velocity is in the equation because the same money can be used again and again for economic transactions. That is to say the same RM50 note can be the medium of exchange for many transactions in the economy. The average number of times money changes hands is the velocity. Because the flow of goods and services is matched by the opposite flow of money, the equation of exchange is indeed an identity. Some regard it as “kindergarten material” in economics and finance. Yes, as important as kindergarten material is to our later professional knowledge, the equation of exchange is a powerful tool to understand the world of economics and finance today.

For example, if money supply were increased rapidly relative to goods and services, while velocity remained constant, the equation of exchange tells us this would only translate into a rising P, or price levels. Perhaps we are reminded at this juncture of the Japanese occupation of Malaya in the early 1940s when the occupying army introduced huge amounts of duit pokok pisang — paper currency that depicted a picture of a bunch of bananas hanging from a tree. This action simply translated to serious inflation.

The equation also depicts that a sudden increase in velocity would also be inflationary. This can happen when, for example, people lose confidence in a currency and try to get rid of it by spending it. We are reminded how in the early 1990s Russia faced hyperinflation when people tried to spend the ruble due to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In recent history, Zimbabwe too faced a similar situation due to both reasons — printing money rapidly and high velocity of circulation.

Price levels can also increase, for a given amount of money supply, when supply of goods and services, or Y, shrinks. This could happen due to natural catastrophes, for example. But as the famous monetarist Milton Friedman pointed out, inflation is predominantly a monetary phenomenon — caused by an over-supply of money relative to goods and services. And this, of course, is easiest to occur when money itself is fiat and not backed by gold, as it was when we used the gold standard.

It is indeed the indiscriminate increase in global money supply, particularly the US dollar, that has brought the world to its current economic and financial debacle.

Donovan implied in his article that since gold is limited in supply, there is no validity to gold as a currency benchmark. From the equation of exchange, one can see the fallacy of this argument. For a given nominal GDP, that is the right side of the equation, one does not need an equal amount of money on the left side. Clearly, the amount needed depends on the velocity of money circulation. The higher the velocity, the less money is needed. One can also verify this by comparing data on money supply and nominal GDP of nations and convince oneself that the amount of money supply is always lower than the nominal GDP.

There are ways on increasing the velocity, directly or indirectly. Therefore if gold is used as a monetary benchmark, its short supply is not of true concern in a world of exchange. For example, if one exports goods worth 1,000kg of gold and imports goods worth 1,000kg of gold, how much gold is needed to settle the transaction? None, of course. The great English economist David Ricardo pointed out that when the monetary system works at the peak of its efficiency you don’t need any gold.

Such efficiency can be increased by employing netting methods. Bilateral and multilateral payment arrangements (BPA and MPA) are powerful ways to achieve this and are certainly ways that can mitigate the current global financial crisis. Under BPAs and MPAs, even countries with minimal reserves can trade, bolstering the fact that a lack of gold to play the role of reserve currency is immaterial. On the contrary, countries can leverage the gold reserves they already have to increase trade further. The reason is gold needs to be used only as a unit of account. Just using gold as a measure of value alone would bring about price and exchange rate stability, the very targets of many central banks.

Consider the following MPA example that illustrates netting. Say, the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand (IMT) growth triangle decides to implement a gold-based MPA among themselves. In such an arrangement, the countries would trade as usual, with their respective central banks dealing with their importers and exporters in their respective currencies, with the gold equivalent of the trades being recorded and settled periodically, say, every three months. Assume that in a particular quarter, the trade is as shown in Table 1, where Malaysia exports two million and 1.5 million gold units worth of goods and services to Thailand and Indonesia respectively. Thailand exports 1.8 million and two million to Malaysia and Indonesia respectively while Indonesia exports 1.7 million each to Malaysia and Thailand.

The MPA settlement for the trade matrix is given in Table 2. Within the group, Malaysia’s trade is balanced while Indonesia needs to pay Thailand only 0.1 million gold units. Hence the entire trade matrix, worth 10.7 million gold units, is settled with only 0.1 million gold units. In the equation of exchange, this is equivalent to increasing the velocity of money circulation. Indeed, the netting can be enhanced with more participating countries and lengthening the period of settlement, thereby a huge trade matrix can be settled with small amounts of gold. This was what former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad proposed in 2003 for Bank Negara Malaysia to implement among the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) countries and other trading partners.

The same principle can also be replicated for transactions between individuals and businesses, as in the case of Mutual Credit Clearance and Commercial Trade Exchanges.

Hence, Donovan’s contention that there is not enough gold for it to play any meaningful role does not hold water. It’s the shortage of gold supply that is partly responsible for giving that rare value to gold, for its obsession by humanity and its success as money throughout history, which it lost in 1971 due to political manoeuvring.

Donovan also contends that a gold-based currency system would condemn the world to global deflation. Theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence point just to the opposite. Roy W Jastram of University of California, Berkley, for example, showed the remarkable stability of gold’s purchasing power in a study of the English and American experience covering the period 1560 to 1976 (See Roy W Jastram, The Golden Constant, John Wiley & Sons, 1977).

Another study by the author using recent data also produced similar conclusions. Hence contrary to Donovan’s contention, gold is neither deflationary nor inflationary. Being a neutral currency, that is not a liability of any government, gold is most suited to play a central role in the post-crisis global monetary system.

On the other hand, the rapid production of fiat money by governments — particularly in current recessionary times, as noted by Donovan — is likely to cause serious hyperinflation worldwide. Some economists are nervously watching the US commercial property bubble, which is in the vicinity of US$3 trillion (RM10.4 trillion) , and the humongous derivatives bubble, which some estimates put as high as US$1,000 trillion, as having the potential to create a global financial tsunami of unprecedented scale.

That tsunami, I believe, is not far off and would bring an end to the gold versus fiat money debate and force the world to search and put into place a sustainable monetary system.

Dr Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera is dean of Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance at International Islamic University Malaysia

Agriculture for survival

By
Norazmi Talib .
Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2011, 3:19 AM

I'm an agronomist and probably not that well verse on economics.


As for rice, I need to point out several facts.

Currently we imported around 700,000 tons of rice per year i.e. 30% of our consumption and the amount kept increasing.
Malaysian population stands at 27.2 million in 2007 and an additional person added every 56 seconds. By 2017, an additional 5.3 million (20%) mouths to be fed, another 500,000 tons of rice per year needed. Its only 5 years down the road.
Our paddy production is almost stagnant for the past 20 years and land utilization has been reduced to make way for other development. Please take note that building a paddy field take years. The soil needs to be packed in order to retain water.
If the price of rice goes up 5 times (RM15 per kg), most of us will still continue to eat rice but probably at a reduced rate. The ones who are going to suffer are the poor people (30% of the population). You don't need a war from outside to destroy the country but from within.
World rice production is 620 million tons/year whereas total export/import (meaning rice trade) is only 27 million tons (4%), a miniscule. Since rice is the staple food for 3 billion people of the world (half world population - mostly in Asia), even a slight shift in world rice production will have a catastrophic consequences. Local wars, climate change, reduction in planting areas etc are factors that have a negative impact on world rice production.
Thailand, nicknamed, World’s Kitchen, is not one of the biggest producers. The name was given being the world biggest exporter at 9 million tons/year, a third of total world export since their consumption is lower than their production.
The biggest producers are China, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh, in that order. Hence, rice is highly subsidized to feed the poor population. If rice prices were allowed a free rein, most of them might not afford it. Thus, the term "Food Security"
Currently these major producers are producing just enough to support themselves.
Thus, in conclusion, if there is a small reduction in rice production (remember only 4% are being traded world wide), with the mighty financial power of China and India, they will be able to buy it at any price since it is for topping up their cheap local production.
We, on the other hand, might not be able to compete with them hence will have to raise our local prices at unthinkable levels. As you correctly mentioned, with government cofers nearly empty, we can't be subsidizing this high rice prices to support our population.
However, we are still blessed with oil palm, a strictly 'equatorial' crop. You can't produce palm oil more than 5 deg North/South of the equator. Hence, you hardly see it in Thailand, Vietnam, Australia etc. At 5-6 tons of oil per hectare, no other oil crops can match its oil production. Not soya, corn, oil seed etc.
The average FFB price from 1995-2005 (10 years) is around RM285 per ton with production cost around RM110 per ton. Netting about RM175 per ton. Average FFB price now, from 2005-2010 (5 years) is around RM470 with cost of production around RM140 per ton, netting around RM330 per ton, almost double from 5 years ago. The current FFB price now hovers at RM800 per ton!! Imagine if a hectare produces 30 tons per year. Break even now is 2-3 years after fruiting and it will last for 25 years!
We have to look at various food items to sustain our future. Barter trade with food commodities might be a reality if fiat money does not have any value in the future (if you are not keen on gold). We still have ample land in Sarawak for palm oil production but hampered until now due to 'native land rights'. That state is good for another 2-3 million hectares.


On rice production, we might have to plant rice overseas on plantations owned by us. Lands in Kampuchea, Mindanao, Laos and some parts of Indonesia are still available. Aceh for example has 40,000 hectares of idle paddy fields and this can produce around 230,000 tons rice per year (10% of our consumption).


In my limited economic opinion, food items is a must in order to sustain any economic turmoil and steps should be taken to lessen the impact. Remember, we can safely ride the Japanese Occupation due to the fact that our kampung folks have sufficient rice or ubi kayu to eat, but if the same thing were to happen now, I don't know whether we can survive. Hence, during hard times, food; be it vegetables, fruits, staple food etc are most important. People don't want electronics, cars, electrical items etc if they are hungry and have families to be fed. Only food matters most. During that time, barter trade of food items might work.


The mighty Russians are on their knees when they do not have enough food to feed their population. Thus ending the cold war. They are too busy building their army and neglecting agriculture.


On massive bombings (destroying farmland ..editor comment), . Yes, you can bomb a building but not vast plantations. Its hardly worth the effort. Burning and chemical poison also are only to a certain extent, but not all. You can't burn oil palm trees just like rubber. It just doesn't work.


Yes, I do agree ... problem now lies with the riba system. Allah has declared war on the ones who practices it and as we can see now whole nations i.e. US/Europe are going down due to this usury practice. Their financial system is in a complete mess. We, Muslim nations are as guilty for condoning to such practices. It might be that Allah will spatter His wrath upon us, as He had done numerous times in the past. Only then will people start to seek his guidance and follow his path. And only then, will our iman and good deeds improved to accept Islam economic model as our practice.


I remembered one of the brothers in Gaza told me recently, "Alhamdulliah, Allah gave us this mehna. If not, our girls will be just like the ones in Jordan dan Syria". This is the strength of the Palestinians that we have to emulate. We have a lot to learn from them for us to win the battle of the future; which is definitely coming sooner or later.


Wassalam.


Norazmi

12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011

12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011



We hope this scary moment does not happen.....



12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011

January - 20 - 2011

What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of “total system failure”.

So will it be soon? Let’s hope not. Let’s certainly hope that it does not happen in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there isn’t going to be an opportunity to have a “do over”. We simply will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.

So we had all better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011….

#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated. Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.

#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system, it turns out that “quantitative easing 2″ has had the exact opposite effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done is cause interest rates to go up substantially. If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?

#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100 trillion in credit to support projected “economic growth” over the next decade. So is this how the new “global economy” works? We just keep doubling the total amount of debt every decade?

#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are an absolute joke. According to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last 20 years, and the cost of “hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services” rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a period of supposedly “low” inflation. So what are price increases going to look like when we actually have “high” inflation?

#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are now projecting that the price of oil could surge well past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire global economy. In fact, as I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster the U.S. economy will decline.

#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of the globe that it is setting off massive food riots in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports of people setting themselves on fire all over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or 20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?

#7 There are persistent rumors that simply will not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more “paper gold” and “paper silver” has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What would that do to the price of gold and silver?

#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S. economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen off a cliff. In 2010, only 703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.

#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an “incurable bacteria” that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?

#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….

“It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy.”

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years….

#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn’t stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the entire global economy into absolute turmoil.

Once again, let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.

However, we have got to realize that we can’t keep dodging these bullets forever.

As bad as 2010 was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good right now.

But instead of using these times to “party”, we should be using them to prepare.

A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.



http://economiccrisis.us


Related posts:


* US must accept blame for financial crisis
* How Presidential Fortunes Turn On Economic Twists
* Keeping U.S. economy No. 1

Hal anta Misri?

Jika orang orang Arab bertanya:

Hal Anta Misri? Ia boleh membawa dua makna... Adakah anda orang Mesir atau Adakah anda bernama Misri,

... Kita boleh jawab ... Naam ana Misri (Ya saya dari Mesir) atau boleh jadi Betul Saya (bernama) Misri.

Boleh juga jawab... Laa ana min Malizi ...atau ana min Jawwi (Saya dari Malaysia atau Saya dari Jawa)

Hal takallam 'arabiyy... (adakah anda boleh berbahasa Arab?) 'Arabiyy Masri? (Bahasa Arab Mesir?) ... Qaliilan (sdikit) atau ' Shuai- Shuai' (sedikit-sedikit dalam slang Arab Mesir)..

(maaf jika sedikit bahasa Arab itu tidak betul kerana memang saya tidak pandai Bahasa Arab)

Itu sedikit sebnyak kelucuan orang yang bernama Misri tetapi bukan dari Mesir...

Saya tidak pernah ke Mesir...paling dekat pun ke Saudi Arabia. Tapi sedikit sebanyak ada juga berkawan atau berjumpa orang Mesir atau pelajar Malaysia di Mesir.

Memang sebagai orang Islam kita sangat digalakkan belajar Bahasa Arab.. tapi masih merangkak lagi, belum benar-benar serius memahami bahasa al Quran ini.

Saya menulis ini, sebagai mengenang, simpati, berdoa dan menyokong saudara-saudara seagama atau seketurunan(Adam) yang menghadapi dugaan, berhadapan dengan Presiden Hosni Mubarak yang belum enggan meletak jawatan.

Alhamdulillah sejak akhir-akhir ini manusia semakin berani menentang pemimpin yang zalim, walaupun pemimpin tersebut mendapat sokongan Amerika dan Israil. Apa yg berlaku di Negara Arab sebulan dua ini, bermula dengan kejatuhan Ben Ali di Tunisia dan sekarang di Mesir. Begitu juga berlaku demonstrasi di Jordan dan Yaman. Kita diberi peluang memahami lebih dekat apa yang berlaku di negara-negara umat islam itu.

Baru kita tahu 40% rakyat Mesir hidup di bawah kemiskinan dengan pendapatan kurang dari US 2 (RM6) sehari... Kenapa begitu miskin sekali negara Mesir, sedangkan ia mempunyai bumi yang sangat subur di Lembah Sungai Nil?... kenapa Mesir sangat mengharap bantuan Amerika untuk "survive" dengan bantuan makanan (gandum)... Kenapa setelah perjanjian damai Camp David (1979?) petani Mesir lebih banyak menanam kapas dari gandum?

Mesir menutup sempadan Rafah yang menghubungkan Gaza di Palestin dan membiarkan saudara Islam ditindas Israel...

Bukan saja suara Islam spt Ikhwanul Muslimun(IM)/Muslim Brotherhood (MB) mereka tekan, ulama ditangkap dan dipenjarakan, lebih dari itu suara Demokrasi (yang diagungkan barat) pun ditiadakan... Pilihanraya hanyalah wayang.

Malah awal-awal lagi Washington telah memberi amaran..."Kita tidak mahu islamist"...Pilihanraya bebas akan memenangkan Islamist, sebagaimana Pilihanraya bebas telah memenangkan Hamas di Palestin dan FIS di Algeria. Amerika bukan saja membekal makanan malah membekalkan senjata dan bantuan ketenteraan kepada Mesir (sebagai balasan atas keakraban Mesir dengan Rejim Zionis Israil).

Mereka tidak mahu golongan Islam menguasai Terusan Suez di utara Africa; Sudan,Tunisia, Mesir, Turki, Libya, Somalia, Iran.... Apa akan jadi jika laluan perdagangan ini semuanya dikuasai olah pemimpin dan Negara yang tidak mahu tunduk kepada agenda Amerika dan Israil?....

Berbalik kepada isu Makanan dan Ekonomi. Ini menjadi pengajaran kepada kepada umat Islam, agar tidak terlalu bergantung kepada import atau bantuan makanan dari musuh. Seharausnya negara kita mempunyai bekalan makanan yg mencukupi. Amerika dan Jepun memberikan subsidi yg tinggi kepada petani utk mengusahan ladang gandum dan sawah padi.

K'jaan Malaysia dan negara lain juga memberi subsidi baja... tetapi hasil beras negara kita masih tidak mencukupi. Keluasan sawah pula makin berkurangan, diganti dengan kawasan perumahan atau diganti dengan tanaman sayur dan 'buah Naga!'...

Kebun sawit dan getah kita gantikan dengan kilang Coca Cola...

Lagu Blues Gang...Motong gotah..apo nak dikato.. pun dah kurang relevan....kerana 'kobun gotah dah buek kilang Coca-cola'..

Keduanya, isu kefahaman Islam dan keimanan... Orang Palestin di Gaza memberi sokongan penuh kepada Hamas walaupun hidup mereka susah. Kenapa? ... kerana mereka pentingkan keimanan.. Semakin ramai hafiz Quran di sana. Mereka seronok tinggal di Gaza, berhadapan dengan Israil kerana mudah mendapat 'syahid' di jalan Allah....

kita bagaimana?

Ma'as salamah..Ila liqa.. semoga bertemu lagi..

Hal anta Misri?...Laa ana min malizi, wa laa kin ismi Misri